Let’s see where the attendees of Manifest 2025 get off the Doom Train, and whether I can convince them to stay on and ride with me to the end of the line!
00:00 Introduction to Doom Debates
03:21 What’s Your P(Doom)?™
05:03 🚂 “AGI Isn't Coming Soon”
08:37 🚂 “AI Can't Surpass Human Intelligence”
12:20 🚂 “AI Won't Be a Physical Threat”
13:39 🚂 “Intelligence Yields Moral Goodness”
17:21 🚂 “Safe AI Development Process”
17:38 🚂 “AI Capabilities Will Rise at a Manageable Pace”
20:12 🚂 “AI Won't Try to Conquer the Universe”
25:00 🚂 “Superalignment Is A Tractable Problem”
28:58 🚂 “Once We Solve Superalignment, We’ll Enjoy Peace”
31:51 🚂 “Unaligned ASI Will Spare Us”
36:40 🚂 “AI Doomerism Is Bad Epistemology”
40:11 Bonus 🚂: “Fine, P(Doom) is high… but that’s ok!”
42:45 Recapping the Debate
See also my previous episode explaining the Doom Train:
Poking holes in the AI doom argument — 83 stops where you could get off the “Doom Train”
I often talk about the “Doom Train”, the series of claims and arguments involved in concluding that P(Doom) from artificial superintelligence is high. In this episode, it’s finally time to show you the whole track!
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk!
PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info
Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates
Share this post