What did we learn from my debate with Robin Hanson? Did we successfully isolate the cruxes of disagreement? I actually think we did!
In this post-debate analysis, we’ll review what those key cruxes are, and why I still think I’m right and Robin is wrong about them!
I’ve taken the time to think much harder about everything Robin said during the debate, so I can give you new & better counterarguments than the ones I was able to make in realtime.
Timestamps
00:00 Debate Reactions
06:08 AI Timelines and Key Metrics
08:30 “Optimization Power” vs. “Innovation”
11:49 Economic Growth and Diffusion
17:56 Predicting Future Trends
24:23 Crux of Disagreement with Robin’s Methodology
34:59 Conjunction Argument for Low P(Doom)
37:26 Headroom Above Human Intelligence
41:13 The Role of Culture in Human Intelligence
48:01 Goal-Completeness and AI Optimization
50:48 Misaligned Foom Scenario
59:29 Monitoring AI and the Rule of Law
01:04:51 How Robin Sees Alignment
01:09:08 Reflecting on the Debate
Links
AISafety.info - The fractal of counterarguments to non-doomers’ arguments
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