1) I find it useful (or at least fun) to call out Bulverism whenever possible. You were doing so indirectly by rhetorically asking him how to talk about what you see as a real danger without sounding religious. Perhaps I just enjoy using the word 'bulverism'.
2) The simulation odds you give aren't just different than simulationistas' estimates (50/50 vs a million to one for), they look like a different kind of estimate entirely. I find their numbers laughable because I do not grant that we can [know that we can] make a simulation that seems from the inside like our existence seems from the inside. We can create LLMs that tell us things consistent with the inside of an experience, but we can't verify that. We can't even verify it for other humans, tbf. 50/50 seems fine to me given that I can look around and say "yeah nunnadis seems that real sometimes sure", especially since you've stipulated that it doesn't change your behavior. the million-to-one people are doing something different that i can't easily describe without engaging in bulverism, myself.
Good stuff. Two small quibbles:
1) I find it useful (or at least fun) to call out Bulverism whenever possible. You were doing so indirectly by rhetorically asking him how to talk about what you see as a real danger without sounding religious. Perhaps I just enjoy using the word 'bulverism'.
2) The simulation odds you give aren't just different than simulationistas' estimates (50/50 vs a million to one for), they look like a different kind of estimate entirely. I find their numbers laughable because I do not grant that we can [know that we can] make a simulation that seems from the inside like our existence seems from the inside. We can create LLMs that tell us things consistent with the inside of an experience, but we can't verify that. We can't even verify it for other humans, tbf. 50/50 seems fine to me given that I can look around and say "yeah nunnadis seems that real sometimes sure", especially since you've stipulated that it doesn't change your behavior. the million-to-one people are doing something different that i can't easily describe without engaging in bulverism, myself.