I’ve been studying Robin Hanson’s catalog of writings and interviews in preparation for our upcoming AI doom debate. Now I’m doing an exercise where I step into Robin’s shoes, and make the strongest possible case for his non-doom position!
This exercise is called the Ideological Turing Test, and it’s based on the idea that it’s only productive to argue against someone if you understand what you’re arguing against. Being able to argue *for* a position proves that you understand it.
My guest David Xu is a fellow AI doomer, and deep thinker, who volunteered to argue the doomer position against my version of non-doomer “Robin”.
00:00 Upcoming Debate with Dr. Robin Hanson
01:15 David Xu's Background and Perspective
02:23 The Ideological Turing Test
02:39 David's AI Doom Claim
03:44 AI Takeover vs. Non-AI Descendants
05:21 Paperclip Maximizer
15:53 Economic Trends and AI Predictions
27:18 Recursive Self-Improvement and Foom
29:14 Comparing Models of Intelligence
34:53 The Foom Scenario
36:04 Coordination and Lawlessness in AI
37:49 AI's Goal-Directed Behavior and Economic Models
40:02 Multipolar Outcomes and AI Coordination
40:58 The Orthogonality Thesis and AI Firms
43:18 AI's Potential to Exceed Human Control
45:03 The Argument for AI Misalignment
48:22 Economic Trends vs. AI Catastrophes
59:13 The Race for AI Dominance
01:04:09 AI Escaping Control
01:04:45 AI Liability and Insurance
01:06:14 Economic Dynamics and AI Threats
01:07:18 The Balance of Offense and Defense in AI
01:08:38 AI's Potential to Disrupt National Infrastructure
01:10:17 The Multipolar Outcome of AI Development
01:11:00 Human Role in AI-Driven Future
01:12:19 Debating the Discontinuity in AI Progress
01:25:26 Closing Statements and Final Thoughts
01:30:34 Reflecting on the Debate and Future Discussions
Follow David: https://x.com/davidxu90
The Ideological Turing Test (ITT) was coined by Bryan Caplan in this classic post: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/06/the_ideological.html
I also did a Twitter version of the ITT here: https://x.com/liron/status/1789688119773872273
Doom Debates catalogues all the different stops where people get off the "doom train", all the different reasons people haven’t (yet) followed the train of logic to the conclusion that humanity is doomed.
If you'd like the full Doom Debates experience, it's as easy as doing 4 separate things:
1. Join my Substack - https://doomdebates.com
2. Search "Doom Debates" to subscribe in your podcast player
3. Subscribe to YouTube videos - https://youtube.com/@doomdebates
4. Follow me on Twitter - https://x.com/liron
Share this post